Challenging Burr

As of Tuesday, September 9, 2009, it’s official: Elaine Marshall is running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Richard Burr (R-NC), making her the first top-tier candidate to enter the race. Other potential top-tier Democrats, such as Attorney General Roy Cooper, U.S. Congressman Heath Shuler, U.S. Congressman Bob Etheridge, U.S. Congressman Brad Miller, U.S. Congressman Mike McIntyre, former State Treasurer Richard Moore, and Lt. Governor Walter Dalton have declined to run. (It’s worth noting that a similar situation arose in 2008, when well-known Democrats declined to face then-senator Elizabeth Dole. National Democratic leaders eventually settled on state senator Kay Hagan, who, despite an initial lack of name recognition, went on to win the November election by nine points, 53%-44%.)

So who is Elaine Marshall anyway, and why should we care that she’s running for Senate?

Elaine Marshall is North Carolina's Secretary of State and has been since 1996, when she became the first woman to hold statewide office. Her first election was her most notable, as she faced NASCAR legend Richard Petty in the general election. Marshall won in spite of Petty’s fame and has been re-elected three times since, most recently in 2008 (Marshall’s electoral history can be found at the end of this post). Before becoming Secretary of State, Marshall served four years in the North Carolina State Senate, representing Wake County’s 15th District.

This isn’t Elaine Marshall’s first try for U.S. Senate, though. She ran in the 2002 Democratic primary, but came in third to nominee (and current president of the University of North Carolina system) Erskine Bowles and state senator Dan Blue in a nine-way primary race. But 2010 isn't 2002. The political climate is vastly different. Marshall is the only prominent Democrat to enter the primary, for one; more importantly, in the 2008 election North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes went to Barack Obama—the first time NC voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Marshall doesn’t have the nomination wrapped up, though. Durham lawyer Kenneth Lewis is already in the race, and former state senator Cal Cunningham has expressed interest in joining the field. Lewis has not held political office, but he has worked behind the scenes on several political campaigns.

Despite Marshall’s edge in experience, initial polling for the Senate race doesn’t favor any candidate. North Carolina polling firm Public Policy Polling conducted their most recent poll (PDF) on August 14, which shows:

• Burr leading Cunningham, 43-28
• Burr leading Lewis, 43-27
• Burr leading Marshall, 43-31

So Marshall may not increase Democrats’ chances right away, but her experience and her relationship with activist Democrats in North Carolina may give her the fundraising advantage. This will be crucial in toppling a sitting incumbent.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, history is on his/her side despite the polls. No sitting senator has been re-elected to North Carolina’s Class 3 Senate seat since Sam Ervin in 1968. Richard Burr’s looking to break the trend, but as this race develops, will he find himself in an uphill battle?

For more information on Elaine Marshall, check her profile at the News & Observer and/or her Secretary of State biography.

Electoral History

2008 NC Secretary of State Election
• Elaine Marshall 57% (2,316,903)
• Jack Sawyer 43% (1,762,928)

2004 NC Secretary of State Election
• Elaine Marshall 57% (1,911,585)
• Jay Rao 43% (1,423,109)

2000 NC Secretary of State Election
• Elaine Marshall 54% (1,512,076)
• Harris Durham Blake 46% (1,265,654)

1996 NC Secretary of State Election
• Elaine Marshall 53% (1,333,994)
• Richard Petty 45% (1,126,701)

TRAVIS CRAYTON