He's Not Dead Yet

It is one year after the inauguration of President Obama, and his approval ratings have taken a severe hit. But does that mean his number is up? Are his hopes for re-election dead before he even begins campaigning?

Recent Gallup daily approval polls show that fewer than half of Americans approve of President Obama’s performance since he took office one year ago. Given the long-standing trend of a decrease in approval ratings through the second year of presidential terms, the future looks cloudy for President Obama. But there have been exceptions to the trend of falling approval ratings. Among recent presidents, both President George H.W. Bush and President George W. Bush actually saw a rise in their ratings during their second year. Many political analysts, however, do not believe that President Obama can do the same.

In light of the recent special election in Massachusetts, the media has suggested that the defeat of the Democratic candidate is due to dissatisfaction with President Obama and the Democratic Party as a whole. But that election is a whole different issue best left alone for the moment. Scott Brown’s election is noteworthy, however, as many claim that this Democratic defeat forecasts even bigger losses in the 2012 presidential election.

But not everyone is so quick to write off President Obama. Confidence in President Obama’s abilities to turn things around came from a surprising source: Mike Huckabee. The former Republican candidate suggested that the Massachusetts election signifies “the beginning of the end of the Democratic domination of Congress,” but he also says that it signifies “the beginning of the re-election of Barack Obama.” Huckabee makes a good point: in reaction to the special election, President Obama will have to change his course, a change that more than likely put him in a better place come 2012. It is a change he might not have made had the Democrats won Massachusetts and thus kept their filibuster-proof Senate majority

But I digress. The question remains: do low poll numbers now indicate a future Obama defeat? Perhaps. They’re certainly not a good sign, and they do forecast a difficult re-election. Yet his election to his current office was no easy feat either. Two years ago today, he had been discounted as a candidate for the Democratic nomination, let alone as a candidate in the general election. So can he do it…again? Can President Obama overcome the poor approval ratings and the political analysts who say he hasn’t a chance? Maybe. He certainly has a fair shot. After all, a lot can happen in two and a half years.

SARAH WENTZ